Lamar Jackson, Ravens set for DFS dominance against Jets

0
5


It has been a protracted, lengthy offseason. We’ve seen fantasy-relevant gamers swap groups at the next fee than ever earlier than, and now, lastly, we are able to begin to see if our priors can be confirmed.

Every week on this column you will discover a plethora of content material that can assist you assault every day fantasy sports activities (DFS) contests. Whether or not you’re a money recreation participant otherwise you choose to grind out 150 lineups every week and chase the very best prizes on supply, there can be every kind of gamers right here you will need to roster. Not solely that, however you’re going to get all of the stats to again up the performs. I will additionally recommend stacks and bring-backs wherever doable. With out additional ado, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson $7300 at New York Jets (44.0 Over/Beneath)

Week 1 of the season sometimes sees gamers priced at their lowest worth all season, and at $7300, this might be a type of events. In 2021, Lamar Jackson threw the ball a mean of 31.8 instances per recreation, an uptick of over 5 extra passes per recreation from is earlier seasons in Baltimore. The reasoning behind this was crystal-clear: season-ending accidents to J.Ok Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The Ravens have performed issues cautiously with the return of each backs, and it stays to be seen how closely Dobbins may be relied on within the early fixtures that Edwards will miss. The Ravens should need to be a run-heavy crew, however it appears unlikely early on with a bunch of uninspiring choices on the roster, and in opposition to the Jets to open the season, a motivated Jackson is somebody I will be completely happy to make use of regardless of the rostership.

Utilization Recommendations: Jackson may be locked in to all sorts of lineups this weekend, be they money or match. Stacks with Mark Andrews would possibly show chalky, however by including James Proche (who was the discuss of camp until a soft-tissue damage occurred) or stacking Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Doubtless, there are nonetheless methods to be completely different. Working it again with both Elijah Moore or Michael Carter, who ought to see extra passing down utilization out of the gate, is an effective solution to additional construct out that stack.

Jalen Hurts $6800 vs. Detroit Lions (48.0 Over/Beneath)

The Eagles have put their belief in Hurts and can give him each alternative to point out he deserves to be their starter transferring ahead, and a Week 1 matchup in opposition to the Detroit Lions is not a nightmare by any means. The Lions have had one other strong offseason, and the rebuild is in good progress. The Eagles are a crew beginning to collect Tremendous Bowl hype, and they need to need to make an early assertion. In 2021, Hurts was a QB1 in 12 video games and top-five 4 instances; with improved weapons round him, that development ought to proceed. Hurts’ ceiling is QB1 total.

Utilization Recommendations: Folks is perhaps taking a wait-and-see strategy on this offense with early rostership projections not trying too chalky for both Hurts or A.J Brown. Play the Disneyland Greatest Mates narrative and stack them up in tournaments.

Trey Lance $6000 at Chicago Bears (41.0 Over/Beneath)

Even the hardiest of Trey Lance truthers (sure, I’m speaking about myself) will admit that issues will not all the time be fairly this yr. The easy reality is that Lance is a uncooked prospect who has barely performed within the final two seasons, however regardless of the downfalls, he nonetheless has athleticism and elite upside, specifically for fantasy. At $6000, we ideally want Lance to place up 18 to twenty factors to make him a profitable play for DFS. The Bears don’t seem like a crew able to put up a combat in 2022, and the over/underneath is dragged down due to that. Chicago’s roster has holes and flaws in lots of areas, and final yr the Bears had the ninth-worst rating in run defense DVOA. While the crew has been engaged on fixing the secondary, it has come on the expense of defensive gamers nearer the road of scrimmage. Lance is perhaps slightly little bit of the unknown at this level, but when Kyle Shanahan decides to actually assault the Bears on the bottom, Lance would possibly simply choose up the hundred-yard dashing bonus.

Utilization Recommendations: It is tempting to stack Lance with Brandon Aiyuk ($5200) after constructive experiences all yr make them an alluring concept at simply 22.4% of your wage. It is a stack that brings with it some threat, given the low over/underneath, so I would not count on this to be generally rostered. I’d primarily think about this stack for smaller area contests with lower than a thousand entrants. In any other case, I am additionally content material utilizing Lance on his personal, with no stack. If George Kittle does miss the sport because of damage, the Aiyuk play can be so much chalkier.

Matt Ryan $5500 at Houston Texans (46.0 over/underneath)

In fantasy soccer, it is impossible that Ryan can ever attain the ceilings of the youthful dual-threat quarterbacks already listed, however at this value, we do not all the time want him to. The Texans have much more work to do of their rebuild, however they’ve a feisty sufficient offense that they will keep in video games, to an extent, even when their protection struggles, which ought to assist this recreation keep attention-grabbing. The Colts teaching workers has raved about Ryan all offseason, and when you’re seeking to pay down on the place he represents my favourite selection.

Utilization Recommendations: Ryan would not have the ceiling price enjoying in tournaments until it unlocks actually high-ceiling performs elsewhere. It is a borderline play for money video games when you consider Jonathan Taylor is not a robust play at his value.

Working Backs

Alvin Kamara $7600 at Atlanta Falcons (42.0 over/underneath)

The Saints begin the season with a visit to their division rivals in Atlanta, a Falcons crew that ranked lifeless final in all however two weeks of our DVOA metric in 2021. This recreation is the bottom over/underneath of the week, even decrease than Monday evening’s Seahawks in opposition to the Broncos. Sometimes in DFS we need to keep away from low-scoring contests, however there’s one thing a couple of recreation like this that all the time attracts curiosity. In Kamara’s NFL profession, he has had a few of his greatest video games in opposition to the Falcons, together with as soon as in 2018 when he noticed a monster 20 targets. While 20 targets is perhaps out of attain with out Drew Brees checking right down to Kamara, groups are going to should respect the Saints passing recreation greater than they did final yr. With an improved broad receiver corps, defenses will not be capable of stack the field as closely, and Kamara ought to see sturdy utilization in opposition to a crew that has struggled defending in opposition to operating backs within the passing recreation in earlier years.

Utilization Recommendations: At this price ticket, there is a component of threat baked in, however for tournaments, Kamara has slate-breaking potential. Pairing him with Kyle Pitts provides you entry to a really high-ceiling correlation.

Saquon Barkley $6100 at Tennessee Titans (44.0 over/underneath)

By now we all know it may be unwise to hope for an excessive amount of from operating backs coming off ACL accidents, however there may be additionally sufficient information on the market to recommend that operating backs a yr faraway from their returns are typically rather more productive. The Giants have given no indications that they plan to make use of Barkley lower than in his glory days, and so they have solely Matt Breida of word behind him. It is also price reiterating that Saquon’s 2021 damage was a freak prevalence the place his foot was stepped on by one other participant between performs. Brian Daboll was by no means a very run-heavy play-caller throughout his time in Buffalo, however with Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard all carrying numerous accidents into the opener, the Giants merely aren’t blessed with choices. Since Barkley’s breakout yr, he now appears set to play behind one of the best offensive line of his profession and free from the typically perplexing play-calling of Jason Garrett. We might be primed for a renaissance.

Utilization Recommendations: At $6100, Barkley is affordable sufficient that he needs to be common in each money and tournaments. The Titans lack apparent bring-back recommendations with Robert Woods coming back from damage and Treylon Burks combating conditioning by means of camp. A speculative play would contain paying down at tight finish for Austin Hooper ($3700), who has reportedly proven good rapport with Ryan Tannehill this offseason.

Dameon Pierce $4800 vs. Colts

It is uncommon to discover a beginning operating again as low-cost as this in DFS, and Pierce’s value will definitely rise to the mid-$5000 vary subsequent week, barring a really terrible show. The Colts aren’t a fantastic matchup for the Texans operating again, and it is doable that Pierce is scripted out if the Colts warmth up, however at $4800 Pierce needs to be in consideration for money recreation lineups and tournaments. The Texans have given us each indication they consider in Pierce’s capacity to deal with this workload, with the newest proof being they reduce Marlon Mack not as soon as however twice in per week (as soon as after he had re-signed to the observe squad). Pierce would not have the breakaway velocity to show a recreation on its head, however he does have the sturdy short-yardage capacity to make him worthwhile across the aim line, and he holds his personal in move safety. Do not be stunned when he stays on the sphere constantly.

Utilization Recommendations: Keep away from pairing with Jonathan Taylor, because it’s unlikely for opposing operating backs to each hit ceiling outcomes until each groups actually draw back from the passing recreation.

Kareem Hunt $5700 vs. Carolina Panthers (43.0 over/underneath)

One other low-scoring recreation takes place in Charlotte, the place a lot of the eye can be on the quarterbacks who’re enjoying and one who is not. The Browns opted to maintain a maintain of Kareem Hunt and his very tradeable contract, for now a minimum of, and there was no cause to count on his work can be lower than in earlier years. Hunt has performed 28 profession video games with Nick Chubb throughout their time in Cleveland and averaged 14.17 PPR factors. It has all the time been very doable for the 2 to co-exist and be fantasy-relevant. This recreation appears like one the sphere can be fading, and anytime that occurs I develop into intrigued.

Utilization Recommendations: Hunt’s model of play makes him an attention-grabbing correlation for DJ Moore, with the thought being that if Moore scores plenty of factors, the Browns can be in hurry-up mode and Hunt ought to see extra alternatives.

Large Receivers

Juju Smith-Schuster $5200 vs. Arizona Cardinals (54.0 over/underneath)

Week 1’s highest over/underneath comes within the Arizona desert with the kind of projection that may draw a number of curiosity. Each quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray) carry costly value tags and also will see a excessive share of gamers roster them. The Chiefs’ operating recreation is a messy state of affairs to get entangled in and Travis Kelce is the second-highest-priced tight finish on the slate, however at receiver, the choices are way more interesting. For the primary time in Smith-Schuster’s profession, we get an opportunity to see whether or not his utilization in Pittsburgh was held again by Ben Roethlisberger’s ageing methods. Camp experiences have been effusive of Smith-Schuster, and it looks as if he and Mahomes have constructed up a robust relationship on the observe area. On DraftKings with their PPR format, Smith-Schuster may see sufficient quantity to simply rack up 15 or 20 factors if this recreation goes the best way Vegas expects.

Utilization Recommendations: In small area tournaments underneath 1,000 entries this recreation appears prime for an onslaught stack of 4 to 5 choices. It is completely doable for Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Travis Kelce to all be fantasy-viable on this recreation. For money video games, Smith-Schuster’s kind of play appears probably the most wise possibility.

Rondale Moore $4000 vs. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (54.0 over/underneath)

I count on most individuals can be drawn to Arizona’s shiny new signing Marquise Brown for this recreation week, and at $6200 he is a strong play, however I consider the higher worth play is to decide on Rondale Moore as a substitute. With DeAndre Hopkins lacking the primary six video games, the Cardinals are having to lean on different choices to begin the season, and the drumbeat has been regular from Kliff Kingsbury every time he has had the prospect to hype up Moore. In Moore’s rookie season, he had a mind-bogglingly low 2.0-yard common depth of goal; that wasn’t ultimate for fantasy gamers in normal leagues, however due to the character of PPR, it meant Moore turned in a number of fantasy-worthy performances. In video games the place Moore noticed greater than 5 targets in 2021, he averaged 16.6 DraftKings factors. In a excessive over/underneath the place we needs to be seeking to get entry to loads of performs, this one stands out.

Utilization Recommendations: Moore is an alluring play for tournaments in virtually all varieties, however he is not any person I would think about for money video games.

Christian Kirk $5100 vs. Washington Commanders (44.0 over/underneath)

The Jaguars have washed away the stench of 2021, and 2022 is bringing a touch of cautious optimism from some Jacksonville followers. Opening the season in opposition to one other crew that has loads of query marks is an effective solution to get the marketing campaign underway, and Trevor Lawrence is perhaps slightly bit grateful that Commanders pass-rusher Chase Younger is on IR for a minimum of the primary 4 weeks. Christian Kirk made a big effect on the broad receiver market when he was signed by the Jaguars, and all of the experiences this summer season have stated Kirk is trying the a part of a No. 1 receiver thus far. Washington ranked dead-last in in pass defense DVOA on third and fourth downs final yr. The Commanders merely could not make a cease, however they’ve introduced again most of the identical starters and have the identical defensive coordinator (Jack Del Rio). It’s totally exhausting for me to see a situation the place the Jaguars do not have passing success, and it feels very doubtless that runs by means of Kirk. At $5100, he is as low-cost because it will get for a WR1 on this slate.

Utilization Recommendations: This is not a recreation many will assault closely, and one of the simplest ways to make use of Kirk looks like both as a standalone match play or as a part of a small correlation with one Commanders receiver.

Ok.J. Osborn $4900 vs. Inexperienced Bay Packers (47.0 over/underneath)

Former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell kicks off his first season as a head coach with a divisional rivalry recreation in opposition to the Packers. All through this offseason, O’Connell has talked up Osborn as a participant who can be relied on greater than beforehand. Osborn is coming into his third season within the league on the again of a strong sophomore marketing campaign the place he picked up 82 targets and turned them into 655 yards and 7 touchdowns. With the Vikings set to play extra receiver-heavy formations, Osborn ought to see alternatives instantly. The Packers protection is not a really perfect matchup, however with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen commanding consideration, Osborn may see some high-value alternatives.

Utilization Recommendations: This can be a good solution to get entry to this recreation with out paying a excessive value. For those who’re tempted to stack Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson, it looks like a layup so as to add Osborn.

Josh Palmer $3800 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (52.0 over/underneath)

In 2021, Palmer flashed throughout his rookie season with occasional days of fantasy relevance while he cut up time with Jalen Guyton, who has re-signed on a veteran minimal this offseason. The WR3 position appears to be firmly Palmer’s now, and after averaging 28.8% of snaps over the primary 10 weeks, Palmer’s utilization jumped to 58.4% over the remaining weeks of the season. It will be stunning to see the Chargers put him again within the bottle now. With Palmer the more than likely to see protection from Raiders cornerback, Anthony Averett, he is an attention-grabbing play for folks seeking to pay down on the place.

Utilization Recommendations: Too boom-or-bust for money, however a superb addition to any Chargers stacks.

Michael Pittman $5500 vs. Houston Texans (46.0 over/underneath)

It bears repeating that this Colts passing recreation needs to be extra dependable in 2022, and on the coronary heart of it will likely be Michael Pittman. The third-year receiver appears primed for a big leap along with his capacity to win all around the area. In 2021, Pittman ranked 18th in DYAR, and the Houston Texans doubtless do not have sufficient expertise to cease him. This value looks like a mistake and one to be taken benefit of.

Utilization Recommendations: At this value and with this matchup, Pittman profiles to be a popular participant, and I would be happier together with him in money lineups than tournaments.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson $4900 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

It appears to have gotten slightly bit misplaced that Hockenson was on observe to have his most efficient season within the NFL earlier than his damage. This was regardless of scoring touchdowns at a decrease fee than his profession common. The Lions offense appears to be able to take one other step ahead, health-permitting, and there needs to be sufficient targets for each Hockenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown to feast on the kind of lay-up throws Jared Goff lives off of.

Utilization Recommendations: Hockenson makes for an attention-grabbing stack with Goff in tournaments or as a bring-back to Eagles stacks. The value may be very engaging.

Isaiah Doubtless $2500 at New York Jets

Doubtless was one of many true stars of preseason 2022. While many questioned the Ravens determination to not draft a substitute for Marquise Brown, the Ravens quietly went about their enterprise and appear to have discovered an actual receiving risk in Doubtless. While his ceiling can be capped with Mark Andrews on the town, beat reporters really consider Doubtless may be the third pass-catching risk on this crew.

Utilization Recommendations: Every time you’ll be able to punt the tight finish place utterly to open up wage at each different place, it is attention-grabbing. It isn’t outlandish to recommend enjoying each Doubtless and Andrews in stacks for the Ravens, however be lifelike with Doubtless’s ceiling.

Protection

Baltimore Ravens $4000

A chalky and costly choose as they face Joe Flacco.

Miami Dolphins $2600

Camp experiences have been rocky for the Patriots. Miami would possibly capitalize.

Jacksonville Jaguars $2500

The Jags would possibly be capable of rattle Carson Wentz in his Commanders debut.

Stack of The Week

You may need already picked up on the truth that I am excessive on the Ravens and Jets recreation this week, however that is not the one stack I am excessive on. A.J Brown and Jalen Hurts may be paired collectively for 26.4% of your complete finances, and in opposition to the Lions, I count on them to begin with a bang.

Fade of The Week

The Chicago Bears. There can be weeks when the Bears are interesting for fantasy soccer, however Week 1 is not certainly one of them. The Bears’ offensive line points are well-known by now, and the 49ers protection appears menacing and will give Justin Fields a nasty begin to 2022.

Money Sport Locks

Kyler Murray $7200
Jalen Hurts $6800
Derrick Henry $8600
Najee Harris $6400
Ja’Maar Chase $7100
Rashod Bateman $5300
Juju Smith-Schuster $5200
Mark Andrews $6800
Gerald Everett $3800





Source link